As over 1000 new cases of HIV/AIDS occur in Korea annually, preventive health programs against HIV/AIDS are urgently needed. Since phylodynamic studies have been suggested as a way to understand how infectious diseases are transmitted and evolve, phylodynamic inferences can be a useful tool for HIV/AIDS research. In particular, phylodynamic models are helpful for dating the origins of an epidemic and estimating its basic reproduction number. Thus, the introduction of phylodynamics would be a highly valuable step towards controlling the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Korea.
Summary
Korean summary
국내 HIV/AIDS 신환자가 지속적으로 발생하고 있는 상황에서, 다른 나라에서는 HIV 감염관리에 계통역동학을 적용하고 있다.
이는 감염원과 감염경로를 알아내고, 기본재생산지수를 산출하도록 해주기 때문이다.
따라서 국내 HIV/AIDS 관리를 위해 계통역동학 적용을 적극 제안한다.”
Ethical considerations are essential in planning for and responding to outbreaks of infectious diseases. During the outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Republic of Korea in 2015, serious challenges emerged regarding important ethical issues, such as transparency and the protection of privacy. The development of bioethics in Korea has been influenced by individualistic perspectives applied in clinical contexts, leading to a paucity of ethical perspectives relevant to population-level phenomena such as outbreaks. Alternative theories of public health ethics include the perspectives of relational autonomy and the patient as victim and vector. Public health actions need to incorporate clear and systematic procedures founded upon ethical principles. The MERS-CoV epidemic in Korea created significant public support for more aggressive early interventions in future outbreaks. This trend makes it all the more imperative for ethical principles and procedures to be implemented in future planning and responses to outbreaks in order to promote perceptions of legitimacy and civic participation.
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OBJECTIVES To describe the characteristics of a mumps epidemic in Cheju-do, 1998 and to identify the risk factors associated with mumps infection. METHODS: To estimate attack rate, previously collected data from the Nationally Notifiable Communicable Disease Reporting System and School Health Reporting System, temporarily administered by Division of Education, as well as additional surveillance data were used. In order to identify the clinical characteristics and risk factors associated with mumps, we conducted a questionnaire survey in 17 schools (9 elementary, 4 middle, and 4 high schools) among a population that included healthy students. RESULTS: From March 3 to August 31, 2,195 cases of mumps were identified, and patients under 20 years of age accounted for 2,162 cases (attack rate 13.2, 95% CI 12.6-13.7/1,000). The attack rate for the population under 20 years of age was the highest in Nam county (44.7/1,000), and in the 7-12 years old sub-group(>20.0/1,000). There was no sexual difference. 80.9% and 59.7% of patients presented periauricular and submandibular swelling respectively. Aseptic meningitis was a complication in 2.9% of cases, orchitis in 1.3%, epididymitis in 0.9% and oophoritis in 0.6% respectively. The overall MMR vaccination rate was 59.1% and it decreased in accordance with increasing age. In students aged 10 years old or below, household contact and MMR vaccination status was significantly associated with infection, and only among students with household contact, the risk of one dose MMR(OR=10.22, 95% CI 2.92-35.78) and non-vaccination (OR=11.62, 95% CI 1.96-68.96) was significantly greater when compared with that of two dose vaccination. Among students aged 11 years old or above, household contact history was significantly associated and MMR vaccination status was not associated. CONCLUSIONS: Low vaccination rate and vaccine failure were thought to predispose the population for this large outbreak. To prevent sustained mumps outbreaks, a second MMR vaccination should be encouraged and catch up vaccinations should be given to elderly children who remain susceptible.
The survey methods for confirming the epidemicity and identifying the possible causes of the cancer epidemic can be different from those for infectious diseases. The procedure for confirming whether the outbreak is epidemic or not is quite different. Household survey for identifying cancer cases and residents actually living at the area should be done. Hospital survey for medical record review should be performed to identify all cancer cases among the residents of the outbreak area and confirming the final diagnoses of the cancer cases. Comparing the level of cancer incidence or mortality with other areas can be done by using poison distribution, or calculating SIR (standard Incidence Ratio) from cumulative incidence rates. Case-control study can be conducted to identify the etiologic factors of the cancer epidemic and to establish strategy for preventing further recurrence of the outbreak.
The impact of the next influenza pandemic is difficult to predict. It is dependent on how virulent the virus is, how rapidly it spreads from population to population, and the effectiveness of prevention and response efforts. Despite the uncertainty about the magnitude of the next pandemic, estimates of the health and economic impact remain important to aid public health policy decisions and guide pandemic planning for health and emergency sectors. Planning ahead in preparation for an influenza pandemic, with its potentially very high morbidity and mortality rates, is essential for hospital administrators and public health officials. The estimation of pandemic impact is based on the previous pandemics- we had experienced at least 3 pandemics in 20th century. But the epidemiological characteristics - ie, start season, the impact of 1st wave, pathogenicity and virulence of the viruses and the primary victims of population were quite different from one another. I reviewed methodology for estimation and modelling of pandemic impact and described some nations's results using them in their national preparedness plans. And then I showed the estimates of pandemic influenza impact in Korea with FluSurge and FluAid. And, I described the results of pandemic modelling with parameters of 1918 pandemic for the shake of education and training of the first-line responder health officials to the epidemics. In preparing influenza pandemics, the simulation and modelling are the keys to reduce the uncertainty of the future and to make proper policies to manage and control the pandemics.