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COVID-19: Perspective
- Interpretation of the Basic and Effective Reproduction Number
- Jun-Sik Lim, Sung-Il Cho, Sukhyun Ryu, Son-Il Pak
- J Prev Med Public Health. 2020;53(6):405-408. Published online October 20, 2020
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.20.288
- 6,808 View
- 373 Download
- 9 Crossref
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Abstract
PDF - In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number (R0) is a term that describes the expected number of infections generated by 1 case in a susceptible population. At the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, R0 was frequently referenced by the public health community and the wider public. However, this metric is often misused or misinterpreted. Moreover, the complexity of the process of estimating R0 has caused difficulties for a substantial number of researchers. In this article, in order to increase the accessibility of this concept, we address several misconceptions related to the threshold characteristics of R0 and the effective reproduction number (Rt). Moreover, the appropriate interpretation of the metrics is discussed. R0 should be considered as a population-averaged value that pools the contact structure according to a stochastic transmission process. Furthermore, it is necessary to understand the unavoidable time lag for Rt due to the incubation period of the disease.
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Summary
Citations
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COVID-19: Systematic Review- Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
- Yousef Alimohamadi, Maryam Taghdir, Mojtaba Sepandi
- J Prev Med Public Health. 2020;53(3):151-157. Published online March 20, 2020
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.20.076
- 23,194 View
- 1,230 Download
- 181 Crossref
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Abstract
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- Objectives
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the main public health challenges currently facing the world. Because of its high transmissibility, COVID-19 has already caused extensive morbidity and mortality in many countries throughout the world. An accurate estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 would be beneficial for prevention programs. In light of discrepancies in original research on this issue, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the pooled R0 for COVID-19 in the current outbreak.
Methods
International databases (including Google Scholar, Science Direct, PubMed, and Scopus) were searched to identify studies conducted regarding the R0 of COVID-19. Articles were searched using the following keywords: “COVID-19” and “basic reproduction number” or “R0.” The heterogeneity among studies was assessed using the I2 index, the Cochran Q test, and T2. A random-effects model was used to estimate R0 in this study.
Results
The mean reported R0 in the identified articles was 3.38±1.40, with a range of 1.90 to 6.49. According to the results of the random-effects model, the pooled R0 for COVID-19 was estimated as 3.32 (95% confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.82). According to the results of the meta-regression analysis, the type of model used to estimate R0 did not have a significant effect on heterogeneity among studies (p=0.81).
Conclusions
Considering the estimated R0 for COVID-19, reducing the number of contacts within the population is a necessary step to control the epidemic. The estimated overall R0 was higher than the World Health Organization estimate. -
Summary
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