Abstract

The objective of this study was to provide basic reference data for stabilization scheme of medical insurance benefits through forecasting of the medical care utilization rate, the medical expense per case, and the treatment days per case in medical insurance program for government employees and private school teachers and for industrial workers. For the achievement of above objective, this study was carried out by Bos-Jenkins time series analysis (ARIMA Model), using monthly statistical data from Jan. 1979 to Dec. 1989, of medical insurance program for government employees and private school teachers and for industrial workers. The results are as follows; ARIMA model of the medical care utilization rate in medical insurance program for government employees and private school teachers was ARIMA (1, 1, 1) and it for outpatient in medical insurance program for industrial workers was ARIMA (1, 1, 1), while it for inpatient in medical insurance program for industrial workers was ARIMA (1, 0, 1). ARIMA model of the medical expense per case in medical insurance program for government employees and private school teachers and for outpatient in medical insurance program for industrial workers were ARIMA (1, 1, 0), while it for inpatient in medical insurance program for industrial workers was ARIMA (1, 0, 1). ARIMA model of the treatment days per case of both medical insurance program for government employees and private school teachers and industrial workers were ARIMA (1, 1, 1). Forecasting value of the medical care utilization rate for inpatient in medical insurance program for government employees and private school teachers was 0.0061 at dec. 1989, 0.0066 at dec. 1994 and it for outpatient was 0.280 at dec. 1989, 0.294 at dec. 1994, while it for inpatient in medical insurance program for industrial workers was 0.0052 at dec. 1989, 0.0056 at dec. 1994 and it for outpatient was 0.203 at dec. 1989, 0.215 at 1994. Forecasting value of the medical expense per case for inpatient in medical insurance program for government employees and private school teachers was 332,751 at dec. 1989, 354,511 at dec. 1994 and it for outpatient was 11,925 at dec. 1989, 12,904 at dec. 1994, while it for inpatient in medical insurance program for industrial workers was 281,835 at dec. 1989, 293,973 at dec. 1994 and it for outpatient was 11,599 at dec. 1989, 11,585 at 1994. Forecasting value of the treatment days per case for inpatient in medical insurance program for government employees and private school teachers was 13.79 at dec. 1989, 13.85 at dec. 1994 and it for outpatient was 5.03 at dec. 1989, 5.00 at dec. 1994, while it for inpatient in medical insurance program for industrial workers was 12.23 at dec. 1989, 12.85 at dec. 1994 and it for outpatient was 4.61 at dec. 1989, 4.60 at 1994.

• Keywords: ARIMA Modelforecastingutilization ratemedical expense