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Jong Hyun Park 1 Article
Discrete-time Survival Analysis of Risk Factors for Early Menarche in Korean Schoolgirls
Yong Jin Gil, Jong Hyun Park, Joohon Sung
J Prev Med Public Health. 2023;56(1):59-66.   Published online December 29, 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.22.428
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AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDF
Objectives
The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of body weight status and sleep duration on the discrete-time hazard of menarche in Korean schoolgirls using multiple-point prospective panel data.
Methods
The study included 914 girls in the 2010 Korean Children and Youth Panel Study who were in the elementary first-grader panel from 2010 until 2016. We used a Gompertz regression model to estimate the effects of weight status based on age-specific and sex-specific body mass index (BMI) percentile and sleep duration on an early schoolchild’s conditional probability of menarche during a given time interval using general health condition and annual household income as covariates.
Results
Gompertz regression of time to menarche data collected from the Korean Children and Youth Panel Study 2010 suggested that being overweight or sleeping less than the recommended duration was related to an increased hazard of menarche compared to being average weight and sleeping 9 hours to 11 hours, by 1.63 times and 1.38 times, respectively, while other covariates were fixed. In contrast, being underweight was associated with a 66% lower discrete-time hazard of menarche.
Conclusions
Weight status based on BMI percentiles and sleep duration in the early school years affect the hazard of menarche.
Summary
Korean summary
초경연령의 조기화는 세계적인 현상이나 유독 우리나라에서는 그 단축속도가 매우 빠르나. 그 위험요인은 비만 이외에 확립되어 있지 못하다. 본 연구는 한국아동청소년패널의 2010-16년도까지 추적관찰된 914 명의 여아 자료를 Gompetz 회귀모형 (다중 분절형 생존분석모형)을 통해 분석하였며, 그 결과 과체중은 1년의 초경연령 단축을 유발할 위험도가 정상체중 여아에 비해 1.63배, 수면시간이 충분하지 못한 여아는 충분한 수면을 취하는 여아에 비해 1년의 초경연령 단축이 발생할 위험도가 1.38배 높은 것으로 나타났다.

JPMPH : Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health