- Seroprevalence of Measles Antibody and its Attributable Factors in Elementary Students of Routine 2-dose Schedule Era with Vaccination Record.
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Geun Ryang Bae, Hyun Sul Lim, Un Yeong Goh, Byung Guk Yang, Young Taek Kim, Jong Koo Lee
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J Prev Med Public Health. 2005;38(4):431-436.
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 Abstract
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- OBJECTIVES
We investigated the seroprevalence of the measles antibody and its attributable factors for the students who underwent routine 2-dose Schedule Era. METHODS: The subjects were 996 students of the national measles seroepidemiologic study in December 2000 who had vaccination records. We conducted a questionnaire survey and we performed serologic testing for the measles specific IgG by using an enzyme linked immunosorbent assay. RESULTS: The coverage for the first dose of the MMR vaccination at 12-15 months of age was 95.1% and the coverage for the second dose of MMR at 4-6 years of age was 35.0%. The proportion of subjects undergoing 2- doses of MMR decreased as the age of the subjects increased. The seropositive rate of the measles antibody was significantly high in the second dose vaccinees (93.5% in the second dose group, 84.7% in the non-second dose group, p< 0.001) and it was 72.0% in the 0-dose group, 85.4% in the 1-dose group and 93.7% in the 2-dose group (p< 0.001). Two point eight percent of the subjects had a past history of measles infection. On the multiple logistic regression analysis, the first and second dose (odds ratio, 8.54; 95% CI.=3.05-23.91), the first dose (odds ratio, 3.06; 95% CI.=1.20-7.81) and the outbreak in the year 2000 (odds ratio, 1.89; 95% CI.=1.24-2.88) were the significant factors for the eropositivity. CONCLUSIONS: Maintaining high coverage with a 2-dose vaccination program would be the decisive factor to prevent an outbreak of measles and to eliminate measles in Korea.
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Summary
- Prediction of HIV and AIDS Incidence Using a Back-calculation Model in Korea.
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Ju Young Lee, Jin Soo Hwang, Un Yeong Goh, Mee Kyung Kee, Jee Yun Kim
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Korean J Prev Med. 2002;35(1):65-71.
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Abstract
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- OBJECTIVE
To estimate the status of HIV infection and AIDS incidence using a back-calculation model in Korea. METHODS: Back-calculation is a method for estimating the past infection rate using AIDS incidence data. The method has been useful for obtaining short-term projections of AIDS incidence and estimating previous HIV prevalence. If the density of the incubation periods is known, together with the AIDS incidence, we can estimate historical HIV infections and forecast AIDS incidence in any time period up to time t. In this paper, we estimated the number of HIV infections and AIDS incidence according to the distribution of various incubation periods RESULTS: The cumulative numbers of HIV infection from 1991 to 1996 were 708~1,426 in Weibull distribution and 918~1,980 in Gamma distribution. The projected AIDS incidence in 1997 was 16~25 in Weibull distribution and 13~26 in Gamma distribution. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated cumulative HIV infections from 1991 to 1996 were 1.4~4.0 times more than notified cumulative HIV infections. Additionally, the projected AIDS incidence in 1997 was less than the notified AIDS cases. The reason for this underestimation derives from the very low level of HIV prevalence in Korea. Further research is required for the distribution of the incubation period of HIV infection in Korea, particularly for the effects of combination treatments.
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