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Korean Journal of Preventive Medicine 1989;22(2): 189-196.
Impact of District Medical Insurance Plan on Number of Hospital Patients: Using Box-Jenkins Time Series Analysis.
Yong Jun Kim, Ki Hong Chun
Department of Preventive Medicine & Public Health, Kosin Medical College, Korea.
ABSTRACT
In January 1988, district medical insurance plan was executed on a national scale in Korea. We conducted an evaluation of the impact of execution of district medical insurance plan on number of hospital patients: number of outpatients; and occupancy rate. This study was carried out by Box-Jenkins time series analysis. We tested the statistical significance with intervention component added to ARIMA model. Results of our time series analysis showed that district medical insurance plan had a significant effect on the number of outpatients and occupancy rate. Due to this plan the number of outpatients had increased by 925 patients every month which is equivalent to 8.3 percents of average monthly insurance outpatients in 1987, and occupancy rate had also increased by 0.12 which is equivalent to 16 percents of that in 1987.
Key words: District medical insurance plan; Box-jenkins time series analysis; ARIMA model; Intervention analysis
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