Abstract

The main objective of this case study is to develop demand forecasting model for drug inventory control in a university hospital. This study is based on the pertinent records during the period of January 1975 to August 1981 in the pharmacy and stock departments of the hospital. Through the analysis of the above records the author made some major findings as follows: 1. In A.B.C. classification, the biggest demand(A class) consists of 9 items which include 6 items of antibiotics. 2. Demand forecasting level of an index or discrepancy in A class drug compared with real demand for 6 months is average 30.4% by X-11 Arima method and 84.6% by Winter's method respectively. 3. After the correcting by the number of bed, demand forecasting of drug compared with real demand for 6 months is average 23.1% by X-11 Arima method and 46.6% by Winter's method respectively.