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Korean Journal of Preventive Medicine 2002;35(1): 65-71.
Prediction of HIV and AIDS Incidence Using a Back-calculation Model in Korea.
Ju Young Lee, Jin Soo Hwang, Un Yeong Goh, Mee Kyung Kee, Jee Yun Kim
1Division of Epidemiologic Investigation, Department of Infectious Disease Control, National Institute of Health, Korea.
2Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Inha University, Korea.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the status of HIV infection and AIDS incidence using a back-calculation model in Korea. METHODS: Back-calculation is a method for estimating the past infection rate using AIDS incidence data. The method has been useful for obtaining short-term projections of AIDS incidence and estimating previous HIV prevalence. If the density of the incubation periods is known, together with the AIDS incidence, we can estimate historical HIV infections and forecast AIDS incidence in any time period up to time t. In this paper, we estimated the number of HIV infections and AIDS incidence according to the distribution of various incubation periods RESULTS: The cumulative numbers of HIV infection from 1991 to 1996 were 708~1,426 in Weibull distribution and 918~1,980 in Gamma distribution. The projected AIDS incidence in 1997 was 16~25 in Weibull distribution and 13~26 in Gamma distribution. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated cumulative HIV infections from 1991 to 1996 were 1.4~4.0 times more than notified cumulative HIV infections. Additionally, the projected AIDS incidence in 1997 was less than the notified AIDS cases. The reason for this underestimation derives from the very low level of HIV prevalence in Korea. Further research is required for the distribution of the incubation period of HIV infection in Korea, particularly for the effects of combination treatments.
Key words: Back-calculation; Incubation period distribution; Infection rate; Poisson regression
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