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Volume 53(3); May 2020
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COVID-19: Systematic Review
Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
Yousef Alimohamadi, Maryam Taghdir, Mojtaba Sepandi
J Prev Med Public Health. 2020;53(3):151-157.   Published online March 20, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.20.076
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AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the main public health challenges currently facing the world. Because of its high transmissibility, COVID-19 has already caused extensive morbidity and mortality in many countries throughout the world. An accurate estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 would be beneficial for prevention programs. In light of discrepancies in original research on this issue, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the pooled R0 for COVID-19 in the current outbreak.
Methods
International databases (including Google Scholar, Science Direct, PubMed, and Scopus) were searched to identify studies conducted regarding the R0 of COVID-19. Articles were searched using the following keywords: “COVID-19” and “basic reproduction number” or “R0.” The heterogeneity among studies was assessed using the I2 index, the Cochran Q test, and T2. A random-effects model was used to estimate R0 in this study.
Results
The mean reported R0 in the identified articles was 3.38±1.40, with a range of 1.90 to 6.49. According to the results of the random-effects model, the pooled R0 for COVID-19 was estimated as 3.32 (95% confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.82). According to the results of the meta-regression analysis, the type of model used to estimate R0 did not have a significant effect on heterogeneity among studies (p=0.81).
Conclusions
Considering the estimated R0 for COVID-19, reducing the number of contacts within the population is a necessary step to control the epidemic. The estimated overall R0 was higher than the World Health Organization estimate.
Summary

Citations

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COVID-19: Original Article
Forecasting COVID-19 Transmission and Healthcare Capacity in Bali, Indonesia
I Md Ady Wirawan, Pande Putu Januraga
J Prev Med Public Health. 2020;53(3):158-163.   Published online April 29, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.20.152
  • 8,857 View
  • 327 Download
  • 10 Crossref
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
In the current early phase of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, Bali needs to prepare to face the escalation of cases, with a particular focus on the readiness of healthcare services. We simulated the future trajectory of the epidemic under current conditions, projected the impact of policy interventions, and analyzed the implications for healthcare capacity.
Methods
Our study was based on the first month of publicly accessible data on new confirmed daily cases. A susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model for COVID-19 was employed to compare the current dynamics of the disease with those predicted under various scenarios.
Results
The fitted model for the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Bali indicated an effective reproduction number of 1.4. Interventions have decreased the possible maximum number of cases from 71 125 on day 86 to 22 340 on day 119, and have prolonged the doubling time from about 9 days to 21 days. This corresponds to an approximately 30% reduction in transmissions from cases of mild infections. There will be 2780 available hospital beds, and at the peak (on day 132), the number of severe cases is estimated to be roughly 6105. Of these cases, 1831 will need intensive care unit (ICU) beds, whereas the number of currently available ICU beds is roughly 446.
Conclusions
The healthcare system in Bali is in danger of collapse; thus, serious efforts are needed to improve COVID-19 interventions and to prepare the healthcare system in Bali to the greatest extent possible.
Summary

Citations

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COVID-19: Brief Report
The Delay in Confirming COVID-19 Cases Linked to a Religious Group in Korea
Hyung-Ju Kim, Hyun-Seong Hwang, Yong-Hyuk Choi, Hye-Yeon Song, Ji-Seong Park, Chae-Young Yun, Sukhyun Ryu
J Prev Med Public Health. 2020;53(3):164-167.   Published online April 8, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.20.088
  • 6,619 View
  • 217 Download
  • 31 Crossref
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
As of March 3, 2020, the Shincheonji religious group accounted for the majority of Korean cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Nonetheless, the most likely cause of the broad spread of COVID-19 among members of the Shincheonji religious group remains largely unknown.
Methods
We obtained data of laboratory-confirmed cases related to the Shincheonji religious group from press releases by Korean public health authorities and news reports. We measured the period from the date of illness onset to the date of COVID-19 confirmation.
Results
We analysed data from 59 cases (median age, 30 years). The estimated median period between the date of symptom onset and the date of COVID-19 confirmation was 4 days (95% confidence interval, 1-12).
Conclusions
There was a delay in COVID-19 confirmation from the date of illness onset among the cases linked to the Shincheonji religious group. This delay likely contributed to the occurrence of many cases of COVID-19 in the group.
Summary

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COVID-19: Perspectives
Characteristics of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Korea From the Mass Infection Perspective
Yun Jung Kang
J Prev Med Public Health. 2020;53(3):168-170.   Published online March 19, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.20.072
  • 8,921 View
  • 224 Download
  • 13 Crossref
AbstractAbstract PDF
On December 31, 2019, the Chinese government officially announced that the country had some cases of pneumonia with an unknown cause. By February 8, 2020, there were 24 confirmed cases in Korea, and the number of cases has steadily increased since then. On March 9, 2020, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Korea was 7382, with 51 deaths. This study examines the characteristics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak from the perspective of the large-scale number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths. This study is significant in that it emphasizes the precautionary principle in preventing and managing infectious diseases, and makes suggestions for urgently needed public health policies.
Summary

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Impact of Rumors and Misinformation on COVID-19 in Social Media
Samia Tasnim, Md Mahbub Hossain, Hoimonty Mazumder
J Prev Med Public Health. 2020;53(3):171-174.   Published online April 2, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.20.094
  • 36,313 View
  • 2,579 Download
  • 341 Crossref
AbstractAbstract PDF
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has not only caused significant challenges for health systems all over the globe but also fueled the surge of numerous rumors, hoaxes, and misinformation, regarding the etiology, outcomes, prevention, and cure of the disease. Such spread of misinformation is masking healthy behaviors and promoting erroneous practices that increase the spread of the virus and ultimately result in poor physical and mental health outcomes among individuals. Myriad incidents of mishaps caused by these rumors have been reported globally. To address this issue, the frontline healthcare providers should be equipped with the most recent research findings and accurate information. The mass media, healthcare organization, community-based organizations, and other important stakeholders should build strategic partnerships and launch common platforms for disseminating authentic public health messages. Also, advanced technologies like natural language processing or data mining approaches should be applied in the detection and removal of online content with no scientific basis from all social media platforms. Furthermore, these practices should be controlled with regulatory and law enforcement measures alongside ensuring telemedicine-based services providing accurate information on COVID-19.
Summary

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A Hidden Key to COVID-19 Management in Korea: Public Health Doctors
Sejin Choi
J Prev Med Public Health. 2020;53(3):175-177.   Published online April 14, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.20.105
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  • 11 Crossref
AbstractAbstract PDF
Public health doctors of Korea contributed significantly to massive coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) testing. They were immediately dispatched to epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic, and have run tests at screening centers, airport quarantines and hospitals. However, their expertise from in-field experience has been often neglected. It is time to reorganize public health doctor system to better prepare for future epidemics. Transforming and strengthening their roles as public health experts through systematic training is crucial.
Summary

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COVID-19: Correspondence
Airborne SARS-CoV-2: Weighing the Evidence for Its Role in Community Transmission
Samuel Pecho-Silva, Kovy Arteaga-Livias, Alfonso J. Rodriguez-Morales
J Prev Med Public Health. 2020;53(3):178-179.   Published online May 29, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.20.120
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  • 213 Download
  • 2 Crossref
PDF
Summary

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Original Articles
Verification of the Reliability and Validity of the Short Form 36 Scale in Indonesian Middle-aged and Older Adults
Novita Intan Arovah, Kristiann C. Heesch
J Prev Med Public Health. 2020;53(3):180-188.   Published online April 14, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.19.324
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AbstractAbstract PDFSupplementary Material
Objectives
The Short Form 36 (SF-36) questionnaire is increasingly being used to measure health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in Indonesia. However, evidence that it is valid for use in Indonesian adults is lacking. This study assessed the validity and reliability of the SF-36 in Indonesian middle-aged and older adults.
Methods
Adults aged 46-81 years (n=206) in Yogyakarta, Indonesia completed the SF-36, another measure of HRQoL (the EuroQoL visual analogue scale [EQ-VAS]), and measures assessing their demographic characteristics. Fifty-four percent (n=121) completed the SF-36 measure again 1 week later. Confirmatory factor analysis was conducted to confirm the factor structure of the SF-36. Internal consistency reliability was estimated using Cronbach’s alpha, and test-retest reliability was assessed using intraclass correlations. Convergent and discriminant validity were assessed by computing correlations among SF-36 subscales, between subscales and the 2 component scores, and between component scores and EQ-VAS scores.
Results
Most scaling assumptions were met. The hypothetical factor structure fit the data poorly (root mean square error of approximation [RMSEA]=0.108) and modification was required for a good fit (RMSEA=0.060). Scores on all subscales demonstrated acceptable internal consistency (α>0.70) and test-retest reliability (r>0.70). Divergent validity was supported by weak to moderate interscale correlations (r=0.19 to 0.64). As expected, the 2 summary scores were moderately to strongly correlated with the EQ-VAS (r>0.60).
Conclusions
The findings adequately support the use of SF-36 in Indonesian middle-aged and older adults, although the optimal algorithm for computing component scores in Indonesia warrants further investigation.
Summary

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  • ПРИМЕНЕНИЕ ПАРАМЕТРИЧЕСКИХ И ОПРОСНИКОВЫХ МЕТОДОВ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ ДИСКОГЕНННОГО БОЛЕВОГО СИНДРОМА У ВЗРОСЛЫХ
    В. В. Трефилова, Н. А. Шнайдер
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Contextual and Individual Determinants of Mental Health: A Cross-sectional Multilevel Study in Tehran, Iran
Homeira Sajjadi, Gholamreza Ghaedamini Harouni, Hassan Rafiey, Mohammadreza Vaez-Mahdavi, Meroe Vameghi, Seyed Hossein Mohaqeqi Kamal
J Prev Med Public Health. 2020;53(3):189-197.   Published online April 14, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.19.150
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AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
Our aim was to answer the following questions: (1) Can mental health variance be partitioned to individual and higher levels (e.g., neighborhood and district); (2) How much (as a percentage) do individual-level determinants explain the variability of mental health at the individual-level; and (3) How much do determinants at the neighborhood- or district-level explain the variability of mental health at the neighborhood- or district-level?
Methods
We used raw data from the second round of the Urban Health Equity Assessment and Response Tool in Tehran (in 2012-2013, n=34 700 samples nested in 368 neighborhoods nested in 22 districts) and the results of the official report of Tehran’s Center of Studies and Planning (in 2012-2013, n=22 districts). Multilevel linear regression models were used to answer the study questions.
Results
Approximately 40% of Tehran residents provided responses suggestive of having mental health disorders (30-52%). According to estimates of residual variance, 7% of mental health variance was determined to be at the neighborhood-level and 93% at the individual-level. Approximately 21% of mental health variance at the individual-level and 49% of the remaining mental health variance at the neighborhood-level were determined by determinants at the individual-level and neighborhood-level, respectively.
Conclusions
If we want to make the most effective decisions about the determinants of mental health, in addition to considering the therapeutic perspective, we should have a systemic or contextual view of the determinants of mental health.
Summary

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Brief Reports
Age-period-cohort Analysis of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Japan, 1995-2018
Tasuku Okui
J Prev Med Public Health. 2020;53(3):198-204.   Published online April 14, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.20.037
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  • 14 Crossref
AbstractAbstract PDFSupplementary Material
Objectives
This study aimed to analyze the mortality of heart disease (HD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) through an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis.
Methods
We used data on mortality due to cardiovascular disease from 1995 to 2018 in Japan, as determined by Vital Statistics. Age groups from 0 years to 99 years were defined by 5-year increments, and cohorts were defined for each age group of each year with a 1-year shift. We used Bayesian APC analysis to decompose the changes in the diseases’ mortality rates into age, period, and cohort effects.
Results
The period effects for all diseases decreased during the analyzed periods for both men and women. The cohort effects for men increased substantially in cohorts born from around 1940 to the 1970s for all types of cardiovascular diseases. The cohort effects of HD decreased in the cohorts born in the 1970s or later for both men and women. Regarding IHD and CeVD, either a non-increase or decrease of cohort effects was confirmed for cohorts born in the 1970s or later for men, but the effects for women showed a continuously increasing trend in the cohorts born in the 1960s or later.
Conclusions
The cohort effects for IHD and CeVD showed increasing trends in younger generations of women. This suggests that preventive approaches against cardiovascular diseases are needed, particularly for women.
Summary

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Determinants of Hospital Inpatient Costs in the Iranian Elderly: A Micro-costing Analysis
Ebrahim Hazrati, zahra Meshkani, Saeed Husseini Barghazan, Sanaz Zargar Balaye Jame, Nader Markazi-Moghaddam
J Prev Med Public Health. 2020;53(3):205-210.   Published online May 16, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.19.250
  • 3,467 View
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AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
Aging is assumed to be accompanied by greater health care expenditures. The objective of this retrospective, bottom-up micro-costing study was to identify and analyze the variables related to increased health care costs for the elderly from the provider’s perspective.
Methods
The analysis included all elderly inpatients who were admitted in 2017 to a hospital in Tehran, Iran. In total, 1288 patients were included. The Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used.
Results
Slightly more than half (51.1%) of patients were males, and 81.9% had a partial recovery. The 60-64 age group had the highest costs. Cancer and joint/orthopedic diseases accounted for the highest proportion of costs, while joint/orthopedic diseases had the highest total costs. The surgery ward had the highest overall cost among the hospital departments, while the intensive care unit had the highest mean cost. No statistically significant relationships were found between inpatient costs and sex or age group, while significant associations (p<0.05) were observed between inpatient costs and the type of ward, length of stay, type of disease, and final status. Regarding final status, costs for patients who died were 3.9 times higher than costs for patients who experienced a partial recovery.
Conclusions
Sex and age group did not affect hospital costs. Instead, the most important factors associated with costs were type of disease (especially chronic diseases, such as joint and orthopedic conditions), length of stay, final status, and type of ward. Surgical services and medicine were the most important cost items.
Summary

JPMPH : Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health