Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health

COVID-19: Original Article

Anticipating the Need for Healthcare Resources Following the Escalation of the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan: Yuliya Semenova, Lyudmila Pivina, Zaituna Khismetova, Ardak Auyezova, Ardak Nurbakyt, Almagul Kauysheva, Dinara Ospanova, Gulmira Kuziyeva, Altynshash Kushkarova, Alexandr Ivankov, Natalya Glushkova; J Prev Med Public Health. 2020;53(6):387-396. Published online October 5, 2020; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.20.395

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Objectives
The lack of advance planning in a public health emergency can lead to wasted resources and inadvertent loss of lives. This study is aimed at forecasting the needs for healthcare resources following the expansion of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan, focusing on hospital beds, equipment, and the professional workforce in light of the developing epidemiological situation and the data on resources currently available.
Methods
We constructed a forecast model of the epidemiological scenario via the classic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) approach. The World Health Organization’s COVID-19 Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool was used to evaluate the healthcare resources needed for the next 12 weeks.
Results
Over the forecast period, there will be 104 713.7 hospital admissions due to severe disease and 34 904.5 hospital admissions due to critical disease. This will require 47 247.7 beds for severe disease and 1929.9 beds for critical disease at the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak. There will also be high needs for all categories of healthcare workers and for both diagnostic and treatment equipment. Thus, Republic of Kazakhstan faces the need for a rapid increase in available healthcare resources and/or for finding ways to redistribute resources effectively.
Conclusions
Republic of Kazakhstan will be able to reduce the rates of infections and deaths among its population by developing and following a consistent strategy targeting COVID-19 in a number of inter-related directions.

Summary

Citations

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Original Articles

Poor People and Poor Health: Examining the Mediating Effect of Unmet Healthcare Needs in Korea: Youngsoo Kim, Saerom Kim, Seungmin Jeong, Sang Guen Cho, Seung-sik Hwang; J Prev Med Public Health. 2019;52(1):51-59. Published online January 23, 2019; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.18.162

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Abstract Summary PDF Supplementary Material

Objectives
The purpose of this study was to estimate the mediating effect of subjective unmet healthcare needs on poor health. The mediating effect of unmet needs on health outcomes was estimated.
Methods
Cross-sectional research method was used to analyze Korea Health Panel data from 2011 to 2015, investigating the mediating effect for each annual dataset and lagged dependent variables.
Results
The magnitude of the effect of low income on poor health and the mediating effect of unmet needs were estimated using age, sex, education level, employment status, healthcare insurance status, disability, and chronic disease as control variables and selfrated health as the dependent variable. The mediating effect of unmet needs due to financial reasons was between 14.7% to 32.9% of the total marginal effect, and 7.2% to 18.7% in lagged model.
Conclusions
The fixed-effect logit model demonstrated that the existence of unmet needs raised the likelihood of poor self-rated health. However, only a small proportion of the effects of low income on health was mediated by unmet needs, and the results varied annually. Further studies are necessary to search for ways to explain the varying results in the Korea Health Panel data, as well as to consider a time series analysis of the mediating effect. The results of this study present the clear implication that even though it is crucial to address the unmet needs, but it is not enough to tackle the income related health inequalities.

Summary

Korean summary
이 연구에서는 2011년부터 2015년까지의 한국의료패널 자료를 이용하여 미충족의료과 불건강의 관련성을 살펴보고, 불건강을 매개하는 미충족의료의 크기를 추정했다. 미충족의료는 개인고정효과를 보정하였을 때 불건강에 유의한 영향 준다는 것을 확인할 수 있었고, 미충족의료가 매개하는 저소득의 건강 효과는 저소득이 불건강에 미치는 전체 효과 중 일부에 지나지 않았으며, 효과의 크기는 분석 연도 별로 일정하지 않게 나타났다. 이는 건강불평등을 줄이기 위한 정책 개입에서 미충족의료 해소가 유의미한 정책 목표로 가치가 있지만 그 한계 또한 명확하다는 것을 의미한다.

Citations

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How did unmet care needs during the pandemic affect health outcomes of older European individuals?
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Economics & Human Biology.2024; 52: 101317. CrossRef
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Unmet healthcare needs among the population aged 50+ and their association with health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic
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Unmet Healthcare Needs and Associated Factors in Rural and Suburban Vietnam: A Cross-Sectional Study
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A New Disability-related Health Care Needs Assessment Tool for Persons With Brain Disorders: Yoon Kim, Sang June Eun, Wan Ho Kim, Bum-Suk Lee, Ja-Ho Leigh, Jung-Eun Kim, Jin Yong Lee; J Prev Med Public Health. 2013;46(5):282-290. Published online September 30, 2013; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.2013.46.5.282

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Abstract PDF: Objectives
This study aimed to develop a health needs assessment (HNA) tool for persons with brain disorders and to assess the unmet needs of persons with brain disorders using the developed tool.
Methods
The authors used consensus methods to develop a HNA tool. Using a randomized stratified systematic sampling method adjusted for sex, age, and districts, 57 registered persons (27 severe and 30 mild cases) with brain disorders dwelling in Seoul, South Korea were chosen and medical specialists investigated all of the subjects with the developed tools.
Results
The HNA tool for brain disorders we developed included four categories: 1) medical interventions and operations, 2) assistive devices, 3) rehabilitation therapy, and 4) regular follow-up. This study also found that 71.9% of the subjects did not receive appropriate medical care, which implies that the severity of their disability is likely to be exacerbated and permanent, and the loss irrecoverable.
Conclusions
Our results showed that the HNA tool for persons with brain disorders based on unmet needs defined by physicians can be a useful method for evaluating the appropriateness and necessity of medical services offered to the disabled, and it can serve as the norm for providing health care services for disabled persons. Further studies should be undertaken to increase validity and reliability of the tool. Fundamental research investigating the factors generating or affecting the unmet needs is necessary; its results could serve as basis for developing policies to eliminate or alleviate these factors.; Summary

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