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COVID-19: Original Article
Anticipating the Need for Healthcare Resources Following the Escalation of the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan
Yuliya Semenova, Lyudmila Pivina, Zaituna Khismetova, Ardak Auyezova, Ardak Nurbakyt, Almagul Kauysheva, Dinara Ospanova, Gulmira Kuziyeva, Altynshash Kushkarova, Alexandr Ivankov, Natalya Glushkova
J Prev Med Public Health. 2020;53(6):387-396.   Published online October 5, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.20.395
  • 6,384 View
  • 265 Download
  • 16 Crossref
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
The lack of advance planning in a public health emergency can lead to wasted resources and inadvertent loss of lives. This study is aimed at forecasting the needs for healthcare resources following the expansion of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan, focusing on hospital beds, equipment, and the professional workforce in light of the developing epidemiological situation and the data on resources currently available.
Methods
We constructed a forecast model of the epidemiological scenario via the classic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) approach. The World Health Organization’s COVID-19 Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool was used to evaluate the healthcare resources needed for the next 12 weeks.
Results
Over the forecast period, there will be 104 713.7 hospital admissions due to severe disease and 34 904.5 hospital admissions due to critical disease. This will require 47 247.7 beds for severe disease and 1929.9 beds for critical disease at the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak. There will also be high needs for all categories of healthcare workers and for both diagnostic and treatment equipment. Thus, Republic of Kazakhstan faces the need for a rapid increase in available healthcare resources and/or for finding ways to redistribute resources effectively.
Conclusions
Republic of Kazakhstan will be able to reduce the rates of infections and deaths among its population by developing and following a consistent strategy targeting COVID-19 in a number of inter-related directions.
Summary

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by  
  • Evaluating the Demand for Nucleic Acid Testing in Different Scenarios of COVID-19 Transmission: A Simulation Study
    Yu-Yuan Wang, Wei-Wen Zhang, Ze-xi Lu, Jia-lin Sun, Ming-xia Jing
    Infectious Diseases and Therapy.2024; 13(4): 813.     CrossRef
  • Historical evolution of healthcare systems of post-soviet Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan: A scoping review
    Yuliya Semenova, Lisa Lim, Zhandos Salpynov, Abduzhappar Gaipov, Mihajlo Jakovljevic
    Heliyon.2024; 10(8): e29550.     CrossRef
  • Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID‐19: A systematic review
    Weiwei Zhang, Shiyong Liu, Nathaniel Osgood, Hongli Zhu, Ying Qian, Peng Jia
    Systems Research and Behavioral Science.2023; 40(1): 207.     CrossRef
  • Assessing the medical resources in COVID-19 based on evolutionary game
    Keyu Guo, Yikang Lu, Yini Geng, Jun Lu, Lei Shi, Alessandro Borri
    PLOS ONE.2023; 18(1): e0280067.     CrossRef
  • Restenosis of Coronary Arteries in Patients with Coronavirus Infection: Case Series
    Gulnara Batenova, Lyudmila Pivina, Evgeny Dedov, Altay Dyussupov, Zhanar Zhumanbayeva, Yerbol Smail, Tatyana Belikhina, Laura Pak, Diana Ygiyeva, Bruno Megarbane
    Case Reports in Medicine.2023; 2023: 1.     CrossRef
  • Is It Possible to Predict COVID-19? Stochastic System Dynamic Model of Infection Spread in Kazakhstan
    Berik Koichubekov, Aliya Takuadina, Ilya Korshukov, Anar Turmukhambetova, Marina Sorokina
    Healthcare.2023; 11(5): 752.     CrossRef
  • Factors Influencing Antibiotic Consumption in Adult Population of Kazakhstan
    Nazym Iskakova, Zaituna Khismetova, Dana Suleymenova, Zhanat Kozhekenova, Zaituna Khamidullina, Umutzhan Samarova, Natalya Glushkova, Yuliya Semenova
    Antibiotics.2023; 12(3): 560.     CrossRef
  • Study of seroprevalence of SARS‐CoV‐2 in Kazakhstan
    Mukhtar Kulimbet, Timur Saliev, Gulzhan Alimbekova, Dinara Ospanova, Kundyzay Tobzhanova, Dariga Tanabayeva, Baurzhan Zhussupov, Ildar Fakhradiyev
    Epidemiology and Infection.2023;[Epub]     CrossRef
  • Editorial: Public health challenges in post-Soviet countries during and beyond COVID-19
    Natalya Glushkova, Yuliya Semenova, Antonio Sarria-Santamera
    Frontiers in Public Health.2023;[Epub]     CrossRef
  • The Epidemiological and Economic Impact of COVID-19 in Kazakhstan: An Agent-Based Modeling
    Berik Koichubekov, Aliya Takuadina, Ilya Korshukov, Marina Sorokina, Anar Turmukhambetova
    Healthcare.2023; 11(22): 2968.     CrossRef
  • Seropositivity of SARS-CoV-2 in the Population of Kazakhstan: A Nationwide Laboratory-Based Surveillance
    Yuliya Semenova, Zhanna Kalmatayeva, Ainash Oshibayeva, Saltanat Mamyrbekova, Aynura Kudirbekova, Ardak Nurbakyt, Ardak Baizhaxynova, Paolo Colet, Natalya Glushkova, Alexandr Ivankov, Antonio Sarria-Santamera
    International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.2022; 19(4): 2263.     CrossRef
  • The lessons of COVID-19, SARS, and MERS: Implications for preventive strategies
    Yuliya Semenova, Varvara Trenina, Lyudmila Pivina, Natalya Glushkova, Yersin Zhunussov, Erlan Ospanov, Geir Bjørklund
    International Journal of Healthcare Management.2022; 15(4): 314.     CrossRef
  • Coronary Heart Disease and Coronavirus Disease 2019: Pathogenesis, Epidemiology, Association with Myocardial Revascularization
    Gulnara Batenova, Evgeny Dedov, Maksim Pivin, Igor Nikitin, Olga Ettinger, Yerbol Smail, Diana Ygiyeva , Lyudmila Pivina
    Open Access Macedonian Journal of Medical Sciences.2022; 10(F): 319.     CrossRef
  • Impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak on the Epidemiology and Treatment Outcomes of Fractures of the Proximal Femur in Kazakhstan
    Bekzat Beisenov, Maksut Kulzhanov, Tatyana Popova, Assel Yermekbayeva, Nurlat Beikutuly, Kanat Tezekbayev, Shynar Tanabayeva, Ildar Fakhradiyev
    Experimental and Applied Biomedical Research (EABR).2022;[Epub]     CrossRef
  • Clinical characteristics and risk factors for disease severity and mortality of COVID-19 patients with diabetes mellitus in Kazakhstan: A nationwide study
    Azhar Dyusupova, Raida Faizova, Oksana Yurkovskaya, Tatiana Belyaeva, Tatiana Terekhova, Amina Khismetova, Antonio Sarria-Santamera, Dmitry Bokov, Alexandr Ivankov, Natalya Glushkova
    Heliyon.2021; 7(3): e06561.     CrossRef
  • Comparative Analysis Of Triage Systems At Emergency Departments Of Different Countries: Implementation In Kazakhstan
    Lyudmila Pivina, Assylzhan M. Messova, Yersin T. Zhunussov, Zhanar Urazalina, Zhanna Muzdubayeva, Diana Ygiyeva, Murat Muratoglu, Gulnara Batenova, Sharbanu Uisenbayeva, Yulia Semenova
    Russian Open Medical Journal.2021;[Epub]     CrossRef
Original Articles
Poor People and Poor Health: Examining the Mediating Effect of Unmet Healthcare Needs in Korea
Youngsoo Kim, Saerom Kim, Seungmin Jeong, Sang Guen Cho, Seung-sik Hwang
J Prev Med Public Health. 2019;52(1):51-59.   Published online January 23, 2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.18.162
  • 6,361 View
  • 190 Download
  • 11 Crossref
AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDFSupplementary Material
Objectives
The purpose of this study was to estimate the mediating effect of subjective unmet healthcare needs on poor health. The mediating effect of unmet needs on health outcomes was estimated.
Methods
Cross-sectional research method was used to analyze Korea Health Panel data from 2011 to 2015, investigating the mediating effect for each annual dataset and lagged dependent variables.
Results
The magnitude of the effect of low income on poor health and the mediating effect of unmet needs were estimated using age, sex, education level, employment status, healthcare insurance status, disability, and chronic disease as control variables and selfrated health as the dependent variable. The mediating effect of unmet needs due to financial reasons was between 14.7% to 32.9% of the total marginal effect, and 7.2% to 18.7% in lagged model.
Conclusions
The fixed-effect logit model demonstrated that the existence of unmet needs raised the likelihood of poor self-rated health. However, only a small proportion of the effects of low income on health was mediated by unmet needs, and the results varied annually. Further studies are necessary to search for ways to explain the varying results in the Korea Health Panel data, as well as to consider a time series analysis of the mediating effect. The results of this study present the clear implication that even though it is crucial to address the unmet needs, but it is not enough to tackle the income related health inequalities.
Summary
Korean summary
이 연구에서는 2011년부터 2015년까지의 한국의료패널 자료를 이용하여 미충족의료과 불건강의 관련성을 살펴보고, 불건강을 매개하는 미충족의료의 크기를 추정했다. 미충족의료는 개인고정효과를 보정하였을 때 불건강에 유의한 영향 준다는 것을 확인할 수 있었고, 미충족의료가 매개하는 저소득의 건강 효과는 저소득이 불건강에 미치는 전체 효과 중 일부에 지나지 않았으며, 효과의 크기는 분석 연도 별로 일정하지 않게 나타났다. 이는 건강불평등을 줄이기 위한 정책 개입에서 미충족의료 해소가 유의미한 정책 목표로 가치가 있지만 그 한계 또한 명확하다는 것을 의미한다.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by  
  • How did unmet care needs during the pandemic affect health outcomes of older European individuals?
    Julien Bergeot, Florence Jusot
    Economics & Human Biology.2024; 52: 101317.     CrossRef
  • Unmet healthcare needs among the population aged 50+ and their association with health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic
    Carlota Quintal, Luis Moura Ramos, Micaela Antunes, Óscar Lourenço
    European Journal of Ageing.2023;[Epub]     CrossRef
  • Factors and at-risk group associated with hypertension self-management patterns among people with physical disabilities: a latent class analysis
    Hye Jin Nam, Ju Young Yoon
    BMC Public Health.2022;[Epub]     CrossRef
  • Changes in Barriers That Cause Unmet Healthcare Needs in the Life Cycle of Adulthood and Their Policy Implications: A Need-Selection Model Analysis of the Korea Health Panel Survey Data
    Woojin Chung
    Healthcare.2022; 10(11): 2243.     CrossRef
  • Intergenerational Differences in Factors Affecting Unmet Health Care Needs in South Korea: Comparison of Middle-aged and Older Adults
    Eunjeong Noh
    Journal of Intergenerational Relationships.2021; 19(1): 144.     CrossRef
  • Identification of Unmet Healthcare Needs: A National Survey in Thailand
    Sukanya Chongthawonsatid
    Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health.2021; 54(2): 129.     CrossRef
  • Factors affecting unmet healthcare needs of low-income overweight and obese women in Korea: analysis of the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017
    Ju-Hee Nho, Sook Kyoung Park
    Korean Journal of Women Health Nursing.2021; 27(2): 93.     CrossRef
  • Factors Affecting Unmet Healthcare Needs among Adults with Chronic Diseases
    Ji-Young Han, Hyeon-Sook Park
    Journal of Korean Academy of Community Health Nursing.2021; 32(2): 131.     CrossRef
  • Association between osteoarthritis and unmet medical needs in Korea: limitations in activities as a mediator
    Hooin Jo, Eun-san Kim, Boyoung Jung, Soo-Hyun Sung, In-Hyuk Ha
    BMC Public Health.2020;[Epub]     CrossRef
  • Unmet Healthcare Needs and Associated Factors in Rural and Suburban Vietnam: A Cross-Sectional Study
    Ju Young Kim, Dae In Kim, Hwa Yeon Park, Yuliya Pak, Phap Ngoc Hoang Tran, Truc Thanh Thai, Mai Thi Thanh Thuy, Do Van Dung
    International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.2020; 17(17): 6320.     CrossRef
  • Factors Underlying Unmet Medical Needs: A Cross-Sectional Study
    Young Suk Yoon, Boyoung Jung, Dongsu Kim, In-Hyuk Ha
    International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.2019; 16(13): 2391.     CrossRef
A New Disability-related Health Care Needs Assessment Tool for Persons With Brain Disorders
Yoon Kim, Sang June Eun, Wan Ho Kim, Bum-Suk Lee, Ja-Ho Leigh, Jung-Eun Kim, Jin Yong Lee
J Prev Med Public Health. 2013;46(5):282-290.   Published online September 30, 2013
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.2013.46.5.282
  • 65,535 View
  • 107 Download
AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives

This study aimed to develop a health needs assessment (HNA) tool for persons with brain disorders and to assess the unmet needs of persons with brain disorders using the developed tool.

Methods

The authors used consensus methods to develop a HNA tool. Using a randomized stratified systematic sampling method adjusted for sex, age, and districts, 57 registered persons (27 severe and 30 mild cases) with brain disorders dwelling in Seoul, South Korea were chosen and medical specialists investigated all of the subjects with the developed tools.

Results

The HNA tool for brain disorders we developed included four categories: 1) medical interventions and operations, 2) assistive devices, 3) rehabilitation therapy, and 4) regular follow-up. This study also found that 71.9% of the subjects did not receive appropriate medical care, which implies that the severity of their disability is likely to be exacerbated and permanent, and the loss irrecoverable.

Conclusions

Our results showed that the HNA tool for persons with brain disorders based on unmet needs defined by physicians can be a useful method for evaluating the appropriateness and necessity of medical services offered to the disabled, and it can serve as the norm for providing health care services for disabled persons. Further studies should be undertaken to increase validity and reliability of the tool. Fundamental research investigating the factors generating or affecting the unmet needs is necessary; its results could serve as basis for developing policies to eliminate or alleviate these factors.

Summary

JPMPH : Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health